Failed American Pakistan Policy CA 23/10/2015

Contents




China’s Confucius peace prize.

  • Also dubbed as China’s Nobel peace prize.
  • Big joke of the year: Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe gets China’s Nobel peace prize
  • He gets it for “injecting fresh energy (killing more people for power and rigging up elections)” into the global quest for harmony (Dictatorship, the Chinese way).
  • He is criticized for systematic violence and torture to maintain his 35-year grip on power.
  • He is the present chairman of 54-state African Union.

India, China begin counter-terrorism drills

  • Oct 2015
  • India-China joint exercise at the Kunming Military Academy in Yunnan, China.
  • It coincides with Malabar-2015 naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal.
  • The exercise comes amidst growing Chinese suspicion about Indian foreign policy which it thinks is shifting towards U.S.-led “Asia- Pivot.”
  • Along with counter terror exercises, the militaries focused on disaster management drills as well.
  • Disaster management drills have become a necessity after the recent events of devastating earthquakes in the Himalayan region (Nepal earthquake).

Failed American Pakistan Policy

  • US needs Pakistan to counter the influence of Taliban and other jihadi groups in Afghanistan.
  • But Pakistan needs these jihadi groups to counter India’s influence in Afghanistan and to destabilize Kashmir.
  • US has given multibillion dollar aid (Carrot Policy) ($40 billion since 1950, of which $23 billion were given after the 9/11 attacks) to Pakistan hoping that the later would help pursue formers security agenda in Afghanistan.
  • Instead of using the aid to fight the jihadi groups, Pakistan used it to achieve military parity with India. This defeated the very purpose of the aid.
  • Pakistan’s attitude not only worsened USA’s security challenges in Afghanistan, but created more problems which compelled USA to station its troops in Afghanistan for few more years. [USA previously announced that it would pull back its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Recently it halted the pulling back of troops till 2017. All credit to Pakistan].
  • Pakistan’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is the main reason Mr. Obama had to reverse his decision of pulling out troops from that country.
  • Frequent warnings to Pakistan also didn’t work (both carrot and stick approach failed miserably).

Growing mistrust between USA and Pakistan

  • Pakistan received aid promising US that it would not acquire nukes. And it didn’t live up to the promise.
  • USA wanted Pakistan to reduce the role of military in its governance and foreign policy. But military’s power remained beyond question.
  • Pakistan has received aid to strengthen the country’s resolve in fighting terrorism (Taliban and Haqqani Network that killed thousands of US soldiers over the last 14 years). This not only remained a dream but is creating more nightmares to US.
  • Pakistan’s military and ISI helped Bin Laden, USA’s nemesis, hide in Pakistan. Nothing could be worse for US than this.
  • The recent Pakistani announcement about an ‘India-centric’ tactical nuclear programme also didn’t go well with the US as it will lead to nuclear arms race in the region.
  • Officially Pakistan acts as if it is helping the U.S. and Afghan officials in peace talks with the Taliban. But its covert support is preparing the latter for reoccupying Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal.
  • Pakistan’s theory of good and bad terrorists helped Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its other incarnation, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) to propser in mainland Pakistan. This is not only a threat to India, but is also to US.
  • American readiness to offer aid has bred dependence, and the U.S. has ended up as an enabler of Pakistan’s dysfunction

Japan offers India soft loan of $15 billion

  • Japan has offered to finance India’s first bullet train link between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.
  • Japan concluded it would be technically and financially viable.
  • It is estimated to cost $15 billion. Japan has promised to finance $15 billion at an interest rate of less than 1 per cent.
  • China won the contract to assess the feasibility of a high-speed train between Delhi and Mumbai, a 1,200-km route estimated to cost twice as much. No loan has yet been offered.
  • The two projects are part of a ‘Diamond Quadrilateral’ of high-speed trains over 10,000 km of track that India wants to set up connecting Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.
  • Japan has offered to meet 80 per cent of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project cost, on condition that India buys 30 per cent of equipment including the coaches and locomotives from Japanese firms.
  • Fierce competition between Japan and China is expected to benefit India.
  • Japan’s decision to give virtually free finance is part of its broader push back against China’s involvement in infrastructure development in South Asia.
  • Japanese companies are also keen to collaborate with their Indian counterparts on the rail project as part of Make-in-India programme.
  • Tokyo’s push in India comes just weeks after it lost out to China on the contract to build Indonesia’s first fast-train link.

Need for foreign investment in Indian railways

  • India’s State-controlled rail system has a poor safety record and is in desperate need of funds to modernize it.
  • The average speed of trains is 54 km/hour, and the priority ought to be to improve the speed and safety on existing trains and routes.
  • Labour laws and lack of finances are a roadblock in streamlining the railway management.

Make in India attracting flow of foreign funds in big way

  • Digital India sectors are the key investment attractions.
  • Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (DIPP) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) surveys point out that major chunk of foreign investments are flowing into Digital India.
  • Construction sector and automobile sector — a pillar of the Make in India mission, have received comparatively less foreign funds.

India submitted its climate contribution on October 2

  • India promised by 2030 to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35 per cent from 2005 levels, increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to 40 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity, and to significantly increase its forest and tree cover.
  • It is useful to place India’s contribution in the context of the negotiations for the 2015 climate agreement
  • The provisions of the UN Climate Convention most often cited by developing countries are those that set out the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (bear the costs as per the damage done. Developed countries are completely against this).

Failing state health insurance schemes

  • Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY): Government-financed health insurance scheme.
  • Due to rampant leakage of funds, the scheme has no impact on financial risk protection. The case is similar with state health schemes.
  • Despite high enrolment in RSBY, health expenditures are not reimbursed in many cases.
I will post on India-Africa Summit after the summit is over.

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