India’s Unofficial Blockade of Nepal – Causes, Consequences.
- Nepal's geography make it inescapably economically dependent on India.
- Landlocked Nepal is overwhelmingly reliant upon imports from India (food, consumer goods, and 100 percent of its fuel - aviation fuel, petrol, diesel and cooking gas).
Background
- Nepal adopted its new fully secular and democratic constitution in September 2015 after years of deliberation, struggle and unrest.
- Madhesis, began protesting against some provisions of the country's new constitution.
- [The Madhesi people inhabit the flat southern region or terai region of Nepal known as the Madhesh]
- Madhesis, who comprise around 30 percent of the population, objected to the proposed provisions that they said would lead to their underrepresentation in the national parliament, public employment and official positions.
- Madhesis share strong links with communities across the border (porous border), meaning that turmoil in Nepal has domestic political as well as security implications.
- So India felt a need to intervene and intervened, but too late.
Late reaction that backfired
- If Delhi had intervened more artfully and earlier, it might have helped to broker a constitution that was less objectionable to Madhesis.
- Instead, supplies to Nepal were cut off one or two days after the constitution's promulgation.
- This strategic blunder by India cost its image both in Nepal as well as around the world. (#BackoffIndia twitter handle was trending worldwide).
- Nepalese politicians and to a great extent Nepalese citizens saw India’s actions as undue interference in their country’s domestic politics.
India’s stand
- India said it had "consistently argued that all sections of Nepal must reach a consensus on the political challenges confronting them."[Good point. But who is India to dictate terms! It can give advices, but not set rules][With almost every day a man being lynched in India, how can India afford to advise its neighbor over ‘sabka sath sabka vikas’]
- It said "incidents of violence" had created difficulties for Indian freight companies and transporters operating in Nepal. [this is a lame argument put forward by India]
- So finally, India’s stand is clearly unjustifiable and amounts to violation of Panchasheel principle of non-interference, mutual co-operation etc.
Other issues
- Recently there were some protests in Nepal to make Nepal a Hindu State instead of a secular state.
- Some allege that it was India and its right wing government that was behind these protests.
- This episode also hurt India’s external image.
India-Nepal-China – A love triangle
Factors that influence Nepal’s relations with
| India | China | |
Culture
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Close cultural history (Majority Hindu countries with deep historical bonding)
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Buddhism is the main Cultural Link (Buddha was born in Lumbini, Nepal)
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Advantage India
|
Democracy
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India is the biggest democracy.
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China is the biggest dictator.
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Advantage India
|
Geography
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Well connected with India. India is the import route.
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Lofty Himalayas prevent quick and economical movement of goods.
|
Advantage India
|
Economic interests
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Hydroelectricity: Nepal has many natural sites for hydroelectric power generation. India will supply the capital and both the countries will share electricity.
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China has 3 trillion dollar foreign exchange and Nepal is in desperate need of infrastructure. China is using its economic muscle to build infrastructure and in return gaining strategic foothold (roads, railways that can be used in times of war with India).
|
Advantage China
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Strategic interests
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India has got no money to set right its own backyard.
All investment promises made by India are a mirage.
So Nepal won’t trust India from strategic perspective.
But, India is the only option when it comes to import of bread and butter and kerosene.
|
China is an economic power house.
Nepal can reap a lot from China bank.
But in return it will have to sacrifice its sovereignty.
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Tie
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Bullying
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No significant boarder disputes.
But India is constantly Bullying Nepal by interfering in its internal politics.
Recent example is unofficial import block imposed by India.
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There are boarder disputes but not like with India.
China is a natural bully but when it comes to Nepal, it shows restraint.
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Advantage China
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- Nepal is slowly distancing from India and is moving closer towards China.
- China can in future gain a strong foothold in a way that it can even be able to deploy its deep strategic assets (weapons, especially nuclear weapons) in Nepal if India keeps behaving like a bully instead of a responsible neighbor (big brother).
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