Syrian Crisis
· Syria is a major weapons buyer of Russia. So Russia backs Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
· USA wants Syria to be a part of its ‘sphere of influence’. It wants to remove Al Assad and his regime (pro-Russia) and install a puppet regime (Like in Afghanistan).
· The rival interests of USA and Russia is the main reason behind Syrian Crisis. (USA succeeded in Ukraine but failed miserably in Syria and ended up creating a demon called ISIS)
· Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia (Sunni majority countries) and the U.S are Team A.
· Iran (Shia majority country) and Russia are Team B.
· Al Assad is a Shia Muslim. As long as a Shia rules Syria, Iran is happy. If Shia ruler is replaced by a Sunni, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia are happy.
Sunni Shia Rivalry
· After Prophet Mohammed’s death, a war of succession broke out between two groups of followers. These two groups are Sunni and Shia.
· Sunnis prevailed over Shias and they became the most dominant group of Islam.
· Since then there is intense rivalry between Shia and Sunni groups.
· Presently Sunnis make up 80-85% of Muslim population and Shia only 15-20%.
· Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Bahrain are Shia majority countries and rest Islamic countries are Sunni majority.
· Before the occupation of Turkey (Sunni majority) by the British, The Caliphate of Turkey was like the leader of the Islamic world.
· After WW I the British partitioned Turkey and Caliphate was weakened. (The Khilafat movement (1919–26) happened because of this reason)
· The Turkey lost the ‘The Leader of the Islamic World’ status and the leadership went into the hands of Saudi Arabia (Oil makes the difference).
· Slowly Iran also strengthened and it is not ready to accept a Sunni country as the leader of the Islamic world.
· Iran wants to reduce the role of Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Islamic world. But Iran is at a disadvantage because of its population profile which is predominantly Shia.
· So it needs to gather allies and it started supporting Shia regimes across the Islamic world.
· Saudi is defending its status by trying to install Sunni regimes where ever possible.
· Finally ISIS was born out of such rivalry between Shia and Sunni.
· USA and Russia are the Shakunis that add fuel to the existing rivalry in order to secure their own selfish interests (Oil, markets, allies, regime change etc.)
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· So all these countries (Russia and Iran on one side. USA, Saudi, Turkey etc. on the other side) started to create proxies to secure their interests.
· Al Assad is a proxy of Russia and Iran. ISIS is a proxy of USA and Saudi. (Moral of the story: Don’t feed a snake)
· Russia’s military intervention is mainly to hit at the proxies of the USA (ISIS and other Saudi, Turkey backed groups – Qatari, Turkish, Saudi and al-Qaeda proxies)
How long will the Syrian Crisis continue?
· It will continue as long as Russia and USA doesn’t come to terms.
· Fed up by the stalemate, U.S. and Russia met at The Vienna meetings (October 23 and October 30).
· The Saudis are already overstretched in Yemen (fighting Houti rebels backed by Iran) and unable to move a more robust agenda for their proxies in Syria. So soon they will have to give up.
· USA - Iran negotiations and a subsequent deal will also help to put an end to Syrian crisis.
· The biggest challenge will be the ISIS (mad god biting everyone in its way).
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